Where is Intercollegiate Athletics Going?

This past year, I’ve had the opportunity to speak with and hear from a number of college presidents and coaches about what they see as the future of intercollegiate athletics. In this month’s post, I’m going to share some thoughts based on these conversations and lessons I’ve learned.

First, relative to athletic conference alignment, I think at some point, we will move back to a more regional model, where institutions are aligned by geography. From my perspective, what we’re experiencing now makes little sense from a student-athlete nor from a financial or overall athletic competition perspective. For instance, the University of Washington Swim Team (or insert any non-revenue generating sport) traveling to Rutgers to compete on a weekend. Student-athletes participating in such sports, revenue generating or not, are missing half of the entire academic week traveling on a plane to traverse the country to compete. I love competition, but this makes little sense. Learning that the University of Missouri lost $9 million in 2025 in intercollegiate athletics, I realized the model as Michael Sorrel shared in a podcast – is the winter for the NCAA, meaning it is unsustainable.

Tied to this, one of my favorite athletic conferences is the Patriot League – which, for the most part, still operates as a pure student-athlete model. While their conference institutions have meaningful endowments, given the exponential increases in spending in intercollegiate athletics at the NCAA Division One level, there is no way for Patriot League institutions to compete at this level long-term. In a conversation with one Patriot League president, I found his perspective naive relative to any forward-looking outlook on the future of the League. I found this disappointing, because it’s clear to me the Patriot League model is unsustainable. I think this is true for other small NCAA Division One institutions – think Furman and Wofford for example – relative to long-term athletic financial sustainability.

So, what should happen? From my perspective, highly endowed NCAA Division Three institutions should merge with smaller NCAA Division One institutions, by region, to form a NCAA Division One 4A nonathletic scholarship conference via a series of regional Division One 4A conferences. For example, having an institution like Carnegie Mellon compete against Lafayette feels logical. One major challenge with this thought is the strong sense of athletic tradition at some smaller NCAA Division One institutions – think Furman in football for example. However, I don’t think what I am suggesting is a bridge too far to consider from an athletic sustainability perspective.

My last point is in regard to NIL and the transfer portal. Given the level of revenue generated by networks and the salaries given to major NCAA Division One athletic coaches, it seems to make sense that student-athletes at the elite Division One level should be paid. To some degree the question then becomes how much they should be paid? It feels to me like $10 million is a little too high. However, again, based on the revenue generated through television broadcasting, and based on what is paid to elite level NCAA Division One athletic coaches, it feels to me that over $1 million is certainly fair.  So, efforts to cap student-athlete’s earnings would put some financial controls in place.  It may even level the playing field some and make the entire enterprise a little more financially sustainable. 

The question then becomes, should student-athletes be able to transfer multiple times? Listening to Michael Sorrel, I agree with his view that the college experience is not, nor should it be transactional. It is a life forming and generative experience that provides foundational building blocks for a student’s future. So, I agree with the view that student- athletes should be able to transfer, but only once over the course of their college career. This is opposed to multiple times by jumping from one institution to another after each season, just based on the, for lack of a better word, salary, that is awarded to him or her.  This practice makes the college experience truly transactional. 

Time will tell whether the NCAA is able to put some controls around the runaway freight train that is major NCAA Division One athletics. I suspect too, at some point, the federal government may step in and play a role from a regulatory perspective.